# Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory

@article{Zhang2021ImprovedEA, title={Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory}, author={Yongwen Zhang and Dong Zhou and Jingfang Fan and Warner Marzocchi and Yosef Ashkenazy and Shlomo Havlin}, journal={New Journal of Physics}, year={2021}, volume={23} }

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on these empirical laws. Yet, a recent study [1] showed that the ETAS model fails to reproduce the significant long-term memory characteristics found in real earthquake catalogs. Here we modify and generalize the ETAS model to include short- and long-term triggering… Expand

#### 2 Citations

An Operational Earthquake Forecasting Experiment for Israel: Preliminary Results

- Frontiers in Earth Science
- 2021

Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) aims to deliver timely and reliable forecasts that may help to mitigate seismic risk during earthquake sequences. In this paper, we build the first OEF system… Expand

Asymmetry in earthquake interevent time intervals

- Physics
- 2021

15 Here we focus on a basic statistical measure of earthquake catalogs that has not been 16 studied before, the asymmetry of interevent time series (e.g., reflecting the tendency to 17 have more… Expand

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